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Transcripts
May 2, 2026
TRUDY MCINTOSH: I want to go now to Liberal Senator, James Paterson, the Shadow Defence Minister. Thanks for your time there, the function seems pretty rowdy, that always gives us an indication of the mood inside political parties. Are you willing to call it yet, James, in terms of Nepean being a hold for the Liberals?
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: No, Trudy, it's not my role to call it on behalf of the Victorian Division tonight, but I am relieved so far on the numbers that I've seen. I think the story so far is that One Nation have underperformed. I think they'll be very disappointed with this result so far. I was with them on pre-poll for three days this week, and frankly, many of the One Nation volunteers and the candidate were acting at times like they had already won the election. They were extremely confident about their prospects here. But in the end I think voters looked very closely, they had a look under the hood and they really weren't sure that One Nation was the right choice for us, for the community down here in Nepean or for Victoria. And the fact that their candidate was so not across the details of his own policy announcements I think was a window into, frankly, the dysfunction of One Nation, and the lack of attention to detail they have. And if Victorians want change, the only way to deliver that is by voting Liberal and National in November.
TRUDY MCINTOSH: Do you think, though, that there are lessons for the Liberal Party at the moment where we're standing in terms of the primaries? It is a 11% swing away from the Liberal Party. What would you put that down to?
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: I think it's overwhelmingly due to the circumstances of this by-election. Voters told me and all the Liberal volunteers on the booths this week that they were pretty cranky about the fact that they had to come back and vote in the by-elelection. They were quite angry at the former member and the circumstances under which he departed, and the fact that they'll have to vote again in six months. And some of those voters at least felt like this was a free hit, they felt like it was a consequence-free vote. But I also saw Jess Wilson convert votes on the pre-poll like I have never seen before. I've been in the Liberal Party for 21 years, I've been involved in seven federal elections and five state elections. I have ever seen a leader of a political party convert voters back to the Liberal Party at the rate that Jess Wilson was doing on the prepoll. It was extraordinary.
TRUDY MCINTOSH: James, there's a fascinating dynamic at the moment for the Liberal Party, not just in Victoria, but federally too. On the one hand, dealing with this surge in support for One Nation currently, the primary for Darren Hercus in Nepean, 21%, and on the other hand, you've got the community based independent, Tracey Hutchinson, sitting at 24%, or so, of primary, how do you think that the party charts this path of not losing, essentially, bleeding votes on both sides?
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: You know, I certainly understand that there is disillusionment among the community towards the major parties and none more so than in a state like Victoria, where the Labor Party has governed for the last 12 years and failed so many communities around the state, including seats like Nepean. And they also feel frustrated with the Liberal Party that we haven't done a better job of taking the fight up to Labor. So I think the task here in Victoria, as well as nationally, is to demonstrate that we are a serious alternative government that can solve the problems facing Victorians and Australians. And if they won't change, then the best way to achieve change is to get rid of the Allan Labor government here in Victoria, vote for Jess Wilson's team and equally, a little bit further down the track, in Canberra, get rid of an Albanese government which is failing to deliver for them as well.
TRUDY MCINTOSH: James, there's certainly been a lot of turmoil within the Victorian state branch. I don't need to tell you that. In terms of some of the messy fights, they're having internal legal battles. Does there need to be a sense of a mea culpa from the Liberal Party to voters? We haven't got everything right either, but we're trying to make a change. How do you do that?
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: We are very humble about this result. This is not a victory lap in any way, shape or form. We've heard voters, we understand their frustration and we're determined to do better. Jess Wilson is determined to do better. I have to tell you Trudy, in all my years in politics, never on a pre-poll booth have I had someone raise the issue of the organisational wing of the Liberal Party ever before. But on this pre-poll booth it was raised several times. The good news is I think we're getting our house in order in Victoria. Brian Loughnane has been nominated as the unchallenged, sole nominee to be the President of the Victorian Division. He is going to help get us in fighting shape for this election year. That's a virtually unheard of thing in the Victorian Division but it's a very encouraging thing because the State parliamentary party under Jess' leadership has shown incredible unity. I've never seen the State parliamentary party as unified and focused as they are. Now it's the turn of the organisational wing to get itself into shape and support the State parliamentary party to win in November and I'm very encouraged by the direction we're heading in.
TRUDY MCINTOSH: And James, we're just sitting here a week out from the Farrer by-election in New South Wales, Sussan Ley's departure triggering this contest. Senior Liberals, I've spoken to privately, saying they don't have confidence that the Liberals will hold the seat come next Saturday night, that we could be in a very different position in seven days' time with a surging support for One Nation there. Do you believe you can hold this seat, and what will it say about the party if you don't?
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: Look, Farrer is going to be a very challenging Trudy, I won't pretend otherwise. A regional electorate like that is ground zero for One Nation. Although I have to say, their candidate there, David Farley, has turned out to be quite a disaster. I imagine One Nation having serious second thoughts about him. This is a guy who not only tried to join the Labor Party and tried to run for the Labor Party, donated to the Labor Party, but also endorsed the Teal. I'm not talking about 20 years ago, we're talking two years ago. He has turned out to be quite a disaster, contradicting One Nation's policies multiple times in candidate forums and on the booths. So I think that scrutiny is welcome. I think every political participant in this process deserves scrutiny. I encourage the voters of Farrer to think very carefully about whether they want to send David Farley to Canberra, and what they would get if he got there. He was once a Labor Party member, he was once a Teal, now he is a One Nation supporter. How much longer could he be guaranteed to stay in One Nation if he did get in?
TRUDY MCINTOSH: Can I ask you, James, for your view on preferences? Under John Howard, there was the view that they should be put last on how to vote tickets. That was a position that stood for a long time in Australian politics. That has seemed to shift now. Is it the new reality for the Liberals that you need to sort preference arrangements with One Nation? Or, given what you're laying out about dysfunction within the party, is it wise to return to the old Howard approach?
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: Well, the Howard approach wasn't one that he had at every election, it was in the particular circumstance of the 2001 election, 25 years ago. Since then, practise has varied enormously. It's varied nationally, and it's particularly varied seat by seat. And the truth is that you can't really decide your preferences until you know who the candidates are. Because parties like One Nation really struggle with the vetting of their candidates, as we've seen with David Farley, but also as we've seen in the South Australian election when they preselected someone to stand who was a wanted criminal in the United Kingdom. This is a repeated pattern of behaviour from them, obviously, we know, they've knowingly appointed a convicted rapist to run their campaigns. So we really need to assess the candidates on a case-by-case basis. If One Nation fails again to vet their candidates as they have in the past, we'll have to very seriously think about how we can preference them. And that will be done on a case by case basis, much closer to the election.
TRUDY MCINTOSH: Yeah, it's a complicated situation. James Paterson, it is getting to be a rowdy function behind you there on the Mornington Peninsula in Victoria. Really appreciate your time tonight. Thanks so much.
ENDS