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Transcripts
July 27, 2026
SARAH FERGUSON: James Paterson, welcome.
SENATOR JAMES PATERSON: Good to be with you.
FERGUSON: Now, Jacinta Allan is, perhaps historically, the most unpopular Labor leader, according to the polls today, I think, in the history of NewsPoll. Her government is mired in scandal and controversy, and yet the Liberals in Victoria are not in the box seat to win. Why?
PATERSON: I don't agree. I think the Victorian Liberals are very well placed to win the state election, but they, of course, don't take anything for granted. And there are four months to go before Victorians will cast their ballot. It's the reason why Jess Wilson was out on the road over the last 36 days, visiting every corner of this state, all 88 lower house seats, visiting communities, listening to people, understanding their problems, so that she could produce a plan with her team that is responsive to those concerns. And that's what they're doing now. And I think there's growing trust and confidence in the Victorian Liberals and Nationals to govern.
FERGUSON: And yet we're seeing in the polls at least a One Nation significant surge in Victoria. How many seats could they pick up?
PATERSON: Well, I think it will be interesting to see whether the support they've shown in the polls so far has actually sustained all the way to the end of November. Right now, there is no One Nation leader in Victoria. There are no One Nation candidates in Victoria, and there are no One Nation policies in Victoria.
FERGUSON: Isn't that, James Paterson, the most extraordinary thing that they are doing so well in the polls with none of those things being in place?
PATERSON: I think it's a reflection of how angry Victorians are and, as we're seeing at the same phenomenon at the federal level, they're frustrated with the way in which governments have failed them, and they're entitled to be frustrated, frankly, particularly here in Victoria. 12 years of Labor has led to at least $15 billion of taxpayers' money handed over corruptly to the CFMEU, bikies and organised crime. This state is littered with potholes, which has become a real emblem of state failure, frankly. Among all the other problems like cost of living and crime and community safety. So Victorians are angry, they're entitled to be, but I think ultimately if they want change they need someone who's got a plan to deliver that change, and I think only Jess Wilson and her colleagues have that plan.
FERGUSON: At the same time, do you accept that the Liberal opposition in Victoria has opened the door to One Nation in its current strength because of years of backstabbing, of branch stacking, of failed policy development? Do you accept that Victorian Liberals have played a role in the current situation?
PATERSON: Of course, and everyone knows that the Victorian Liberal Party has had its issues in the past, but since Jess became leader a little bit over six months ago, I think the state parliamentary party has shown incredible discipline, unity and focus and dealt with a lot of those issues. And now I've never seen them as laser-like focused as they are on delivering good government for Victorians after November and winning the state election.
FERGUSON: Which areas of Victoria do you think are most vulnerable to One Nation picking up seats in the election?
PATERSON: Look, it's certainly the outer suburbs and regions where people feel neglected, where people feel taken for granted. I think particularly in the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne and some pockets of the southeast, where Labor has held some of these seats on huge margins for decades. They feel like they've escaped and missed out on a lot of the investment that's gone to other more marginal seats around the state. And they're pretty angry about that. They're entitled to be angry about that. They want to be heard. That's why Jess visited those seats. It's not traditional for a Liberal leader to go and visit a safe Labor seat this far out from an election. But she went and did that. She didn't just do a token visit. She went and visited multiple small businesses, schools, police stations, community groups, CFA fire stations, to listen to them, to hear them, so that she can be their voice. And I think she's done a good job with that.
FERGUSON: It's not just Labor seats though, is it?
PATERSON: No, no, I think it's across Victoria. There's no question about that. And regional Victoria feels neglected by this government. You know, the Premier made such a boast of being a regional Premier, but anybody who's travelled outside the tram tracks in Melbourne knows the shocking state of our roads that should never be tolerated, that is dangerous, that costs Victorians money every time they blow a tyre or bust a rim, hundreds of dollars, thousands of dollars to replace it, as well as putting their lives at risk. That is evidence of neglect, and regional Victorians are angry about that, and they're entitled to be.
FERGUSON: Is Jess Wilson open to a preference deal with One Nation ahead of the election?
PATERSON: Look, she's said very consistently that that will be decided in the usual time, in the usual way, by the party organisation closer to the election.
FERGUSON: What would your advice be to her?
PATERSON: Well, it's usually done on a seat-by-seat basis, and it's usually only done after the candidates have been selected because, in the past, some parties, particularly minor parties like One Nation, have had great difficulty screening their candidates to make sure that they are people who are acceptable to stand for public office. They have pre-selected people accused of serious crimes in the past. They had a person who was a wanted person at the state election in South Australia recently. So I think she should wait, the party should wait and make that decision in an informed way.
FERGUSON: And what about the prospect of forming a coalition government with One Nation?
PATERSON: Well that's not what the Victorian Liberals and Nationals are seeking from the Victorian people. They want to deliver change; they've got a plan for it.
FERGUSON: I mean clearly not, but are they open to it, if that's the way the cookie crumbles in November?
PATERSON: They're very focused on seeking majority government, and they need majority government if they're going to turn this state around. We have a debt heading towards $200 billion in this state. We have teachers out striking in the streets because the state government and Ben Carroll can't secure a pay deal, we have holes in the roads. You need a majority government to fix those problems, and you need someone with a plan, and Jess and her team have a plan. And if they get majority government, they'll be able to deliver on that plan to Victorians.
FERGUSON: I understand it's not your decision to make, but you're an influential player in Victoria. The prospects of forming government in coalition is something that the Liberal Party in Victoria is still open to, would that be fair?
PATERSON: No, Sarah. You have to ask that question, and I have to squirm uncomfortably while you do so, but I'm not going to give that answer or canvass that issue publicly. It wouldn't be helpful to anyone.
FERGUSON: How do you deal with the drain the swamp issue that politics is facing? You talk about some very real issues that are present in Victoria at the moment, but there is a general mood in the country, to use that American term, drain the swamp, against both sides of politics. How do you deal with that while also addressing those specific issues that you've raised this evening?
PATERSON: Yeah, my sense is voters are sick of business as usual in politics. They're sick of the spin. They want direct answers. They don't just want to be told that everything is easy, that everything's fixable, that we can fix things overnight. They want honesty about the circumstances we find ourselves in, whether that's here in Victoria or nationally. And they want us to treat them like adults and take them into our confidence and be honest that we can't fix these problems overnight, but we're going to work very diligently and sincerely on that and demonstrate that our focus is on their priorities, not on ourselves.
FERGUSON: Nonetheless, wouldn't it be an honest answer to your honest answer to tell the viewers whether or not a coalition government is a prospect? Isn't that treating the viewers as adults?
PATERSON: Well, you can understand, Sarah, and I'm sure your viewers will too, I'm a federal senator. It's not my role to comment on behalf of the state parliamentary party, a hypothetical scenario after the state election. It's just not what's in prospect right now. They're seeking majority government. My honest belief is that they will secure majority government, even though Labor has changed their, or may change their leader tomorrow. I don't think that fundamentally changes the government. This is a government which is corrupt to its core. Ben Carroll sat around the cabinet table, first as Deputy Premier to Jacinta Allan and before that as a cabinet minister under Daniel Andrews while the decisions were made to empower the CFMEU, bikies and organised crime on Big Build sites. He stood by and allowed that to happen. Now, he might performatively call a Royal Commission tokenistically now that he has become leader, but that's not out of sincere concern about corruption. That's out of a sincere concern about the polls and what that means for Victorian Labor.
FERGUSON: James Paterson, thank you very much indeed for your time.
PATERSON: Thank you for having me.
ENDS