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November 19, 2025
Victoria is heading towards a history-making state election in 2026, with a woman who represents generational change for the Liberals taking on a long underestimated Labor political operative.
New Opposition Leader Jess Wilson the first woman to lead the Victorian Liberals would be the state's youngest premier in more than a century if elected next November.
A victory for Premier Jacinta Allan will hand her a mandate and prove she is more than just a custodian of the Daniel Andrews era.
Regardless, the state will have its first popularly elected female premier.
But these historic milestones mask a far more consequential race about how the two major parties position themselves and the future of Victoria.
Labor is chasing a rare fourth straight victory while burdened by rising debt, record crime and the absence of Andrews' formidable political machinery.
For Allan, the contest is a test of whether she can distance herself from the defining features of the Andrews era: centralised power and cost blowouts.
Since inheriting the top job, she has slowly put her own stamp on the job. Under Allan, there has been an agenda shift that includes a sharper focus on women's health including endometriosis care and IVF access as well as a family-friendly work-from-home policy aimed at appealing to the post-pandemic workforce.
While Wilson represents youth and change, Allan represents continuity.
In 1999, Allan was Victoria's youngest female MP when she was elected to the seat of Bendigo East at just 25.
She rose to become one of Labor's most experienced operators, but over the next year she will need to carve out a policy agenda beyond Andrews' legacy and give voters a compelling reason to stick with Labor after more than a decade in power.
Wilson, meanwhile, has a long to do list.
She will need to unify a battered Liberal Party, restore its economic authority and deliver a home ownership plan anchored in higher density supply, a politically delicate shift for a party whose heartland remains deeply protective of established suburban streetscapes.
Labor insiders were keen to highlight the challenges ahead for Wilson, but privately, her elevation has unsettled some MPs.
Ahead of yesterday's spill, the government had already started sharpening its attack on Wilson after she was installed as shadow treasurer, claiming her tax proposals would leave a multi billion dollar hole in the budget.
The response signalled a deeper anxiety inside Labor ranks, and senior figures who spoke to The Age on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal thinking expressed a quiet nervousness about Wilson's appeal.
Those who have worked alongside Wilson say Labor's attacks are unlikely to rattle her, attributing her rapid rise to her resilience and quiet determination.
Raised in Melbourne's east and educated at Strathcona Girls Grammar, Wilson grew up steeped in Liberal politics with her father, Ron Wilson, serving as a state MP and later as chief of staff to then opposition leader Robert Doyle.
Before entering parliament, Wilson worked as a senior adviser to then-federal treasurer Josh Frydenberg and later as the Business Council of Australia's head of energy and climate policy.
Her entry into state politics came after a tumultuous exit by then-Kew MP Tim Smith, who was forced to resign after a drink-driving crash.
In December 2021, Wilson defeated five contenders to win a bruising preselection, followed by a close battle in Kew against a wellfunded teal challenger.
Simon Frost, a former Victorian Liberal Party boss and key adviser to Frydenberg, said Wilson's resilience was evident from the start.
''She was always destined to succeed, and it's unsurprising that it has come to her now,'' he said.
Frost described Wilson's Kew preselection as ''incredibly difficult'', but said her long career as a staffer and the lived experience of witnessing her father's political career had set her up for success.
''She showed an incredible resilience to stare down challengers through her preselection,'' Frost said.
''She thrives in the uncertainty of politics and the fast-paced nature of a political office.'' Ideologically, Wilson sits within the Liberal Party's moderate wing. She has argued for a ''market-based approach'' to the energy transition insisting governments should choose ''the least-cost, mostefficient'' pathway to reduce emissions.
She has labelled herself a ''classical, small-l Liberal'', is prochoice, supported marriage equality and stood alone among Victorian Liberal MPs in publicly backing the Indigenous Voice to Parliament in 2023.
While her rise may generate hope among younger voters, climate groups and Indigenous advocates about a shift in the party's policy direction, Wilson's victory was only achieved with strong support from the party's conservative wing, including figures such as upper house MP Bev McArthur.
Her supporters argue she has the depth to manage the party's ideological divide and keep both conservatives and moderates aligned long enough to mount a credible election campaign.
Senator James Paterson, a longtime personal and political ally of Wilson, said it was ''no accident'' she was chosen to lead at this critical time.
''She's driven, determined and has real policy expertise and depth,'' Paterson told The Age.
''We need a premier who can turn the state around and restore that hope. Jess can do that she understands the challenges facing young families because she's faced them too.'' Frydenberg echoed the sentiment in a post on Instagram.
''Jess is smart, sensible, and determined, and has what it takes to lead the state and create a better future for all Victorians,'' he said.
''I have seen first hand her ability to get across complex policy and to communicate ideas effectively and with empathy. She has, at all times, reflected the very best values.''
While Wilson represents youth and change, Allan represents continuity.