November 28, 2022
Monday 28 November 2022
ABC Capital Hill
Subjects: Censure motion, ASIO Terrorism level, Victorian State Election
Jane Norman:
Opposition frontbencher and Victorian Liberal Senator James Paterson sits on Parliament's powerful Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security. He joined me a short time ago. James Paterson, welcome to the program.
James Paterson:
Thanks for having me.
Jane Norman:
The Prime Minister says that the lower house at least is going to be moving a censure motion against Scott Morrison this week. Should the Liberal Party be backing that?
James Paterson:
The multiple ministry appointments should not have happened and they should never happen again. And me and my colleagues are much more interested in the legislative changes that are necessary to ensure that it doesn't happen again, to ensure that any changes to the Ministry are appropriately notified to the public and the Parliament, rather than what is clearly an attempt to take political advantage out of this issue. I mean, I don't think it's an accident the Prime Minister released the report on Friday afternoon before a Victorian election trying to damage the brand and is now trying to seek political advantage in the House. That's understandable that the government would do that, but we're more interested in fixing the problem structurally.
Jane Norman:
Isn't this about more than just politics? Sorry, by that I mean, we've had the Solicitor-General say what Scott Morrison did was to fundamentally undermine democracy as a person elected to this institution. Shouldn't Scott Morrison be, I suppose, censured for that?
James Paterson:
Yes, it absolutely is about more than just politics. It's about the actual structural legislative changes necessary. And it was pretty clear after the Solicitor General's report what changes would be necessary to achieve this. It's not clear what additional information has been provided by the Bell inquiry about legislative change. That was clear. And the Coalition has called for that legislative change and said we'd support it ever since the Solicitor General's inquiry. So I'm not sure what the government has been doing in the meantime. We're looking forward to getting on with it and fixing it.
Jane Norman:
Sounds like the Liberal Party is leaning against backing this censure motion then.
James Paterson:
I'll defer to my colleagues in the House. I don't know what their approach to this issue is going to be, but for me, I'm most interested in the long term health of our parliamentary system, of our Westminster system. It was inappropriate for this to happen. It shouldn't have happened and we need to fix it.
Jane Norman:
All right. Well, let's move on to another big story today. The ASIO Boss Mike Burgess has revealed that the terror threat level in Australia has been downgraded from probable now to possible. How do you interpret this for people watching this today?
James Paterson:
Mike Burgess briefed the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security this morning about this. And it is very welcome. It's a very positive step and it does mean that Australia is a little bit safer. Mike Burgess said very pointedly I thought in his remarks today that this is a result of the investments and the powers that the Parliament has previously given ASIO, most of which happened over the last nine years under our government, but also under prior governments as well. And ASIO has the tools and the powers and the resources they need to tackle this threat. And there are also some wider structural changes happening with the fall of ISIL and other issues. So it is positive, but it doesn't mean that this threat has gone away entirely. We do need to remain vigilant and we do need to make sure that those resources and those powers that ASIO has been given, particularly over the last decade, remain in place and are not undermined or cut back in any way, because otherwise ASIO won't have the resources it needs to deal with this problem.
Jane Norman:
You sit on the PJCIS, as you've mentioned. So you've really watched ASIO's deliberations now for many years. Did they ever come close to downgrading the terror threat before? Is this the first time you've heard of it?
James Paterson:
Not that they've informed the committee, but Mike Burgess has been clear that foreign interference and espionage was on trend to replace terrorism as Australia's principal security concern. He said that in his annual threat assessment speech last year. And in the ASIO annual report this year, he confirmed that that was the case, that espionage and foreign interference is now a greater security concern than terrorism. So those trends have been clear for some time and it does point to the need for continued investment in that challenge as well.
Jane Norman:
Yeah, I'm just interested in the timing of this announcement today. It's not sort of tied to anything specific. So I'm just wondering, as far as you're aware, do you know if it had ever broached this potential downgrade even when your party was in power?
James Paterson:
Not that I'm aware of.
Jane Norman:
Alright, well, let's turn to the Victorian election. You are a Victorian senator. What went wrong for the Liberals? This is the third election in a row that they've lost.
James Paterson:
Happy to talk about what went wrong. But let's just talk about one thing that went right, which I think is really interesting coming out this election, and that is the failure of the Teals. It's really quite a spectacular failure. They had the easier task in this election in the seat of Kooyong, where I'm the patron senator for the Liberal Party. All they had to do was convince everyone who voted for Monique Ryan in May to vote for their Teal candidate again in November. And Monique Ryan went very hard backing them, sent an electorate wide letter and did a lot of campaigning for them. The Liberal Party had a much harder task. Our candidates Jess Wilson and John Pesutto had to convince everyone who voted for Josh Frydenberg in May to vote for them again in November. And they had to convince people who just voted for Monique Ryan to change their point of view and come back to the Liberal Party and they successfully did that. And that's a great tribute to John Pesutto and Jess Wilson. That's a stunning achievement and it is evidence that there is a challenge with the business model. I think in particular that American style Super PAC, Climate 200, which seeks to pour in millions of dollars from extremely wealthy people to buy elections, doesn't work in an environment where there's much more regulation of campaign finance laws, as we have in Victoria under those changes. So I think the real challenge is being exposed in the Climate 200 business model.
Jane Norman:
Yeah and that is really fascinating element of this result that so far it looks like the teals won't pick up any seats at a state level. But talking about your party in particular, the Liberal Party, why have you lost for a third election in a row?
James Paterson:
We have real challenges in Victoria but also nationwide and I am particularly concerned about the falling and declining support among young voters, particularly as young voters are now becoming the greatest proportion of voters. It has always been the case that traditionally young voters are more left wing and older voters are more conservative. But it's become even more exaggerated in recent years as they become a larger cohort. And that's very concerning. There's been some very sensible contributions on this issue from some of my colleagues and former colleagues in the last couple of days. Tim Wilson, the former member for Goldstein and Keith Wolahan, the new Member for Menzies have rightly identified that falling rates of home ownership are a real concern for young people and the fact that the Liberal Party has not done enough on these issues. We need to do much more to help young people get into the housing market. It's the predominant issue for my generation and those younger.
Jane Norman:
I'm just looking at the sort of thinking about the trend in terms of state elections in WA. The Liberals have faced a near-death experience. There are two MP’s now in the state parliament. The South Australian Liberal government lost after one term. The Victorians have now lost. Victorian Liberals have lost a third election in a row. There is clearly a trend against Liberal Party here and I think it might go beyond more than home ownership.
James Paterson:
That there is a trend of declining primary vote to Liberal Party. There's also a trend of a declining vote for the Labor Party. They have won this election, no question, but their primary vote is lower than it was four years ago and eight years ago. And we've just seen federally in May, the Albanese government elected on one of its lowest historic primary votes ever. So there is a migration away from the major parties to minor parties, although it hasn't turned into electoral success for minor parties at this election, which is interesting. So we all have soul searching to do. There is much less brand loyalty than there once was two major parties and we are not exempt from that. We realize that.
Jane Norman:
The state branches in particular seem to be mired in dysfunction. Can you name a state branch of the Liberal Party at the moment that is actually thriving and functional?
James Paterson:
Well, we're in government in New South Wales and Tasmania, that's a good thing. But there's no question in Victoria we need change and we need renewal. And one of the reasons why I'm a little bit positive out of this result is that we have had some generational renewal. People like Jess Wilson and Sam Groth, the new member for Nepean, are outstanding new young faces. Evan Mulholland, the new member for Northern Metropolitan. These are people in their thirties who have a lot to add for the Liberal Party in Victoria over a long period of time. I think it's true historically that the Victorian state parliamentary party has often failed to and resisted renewal. It's now time they get on with it.
Jane Norman:
All right. Silver linings, I guess. James Paterson, thanks for your time.
James Paterson:
Thank you.
ENDS
